Karl Rove On Democratic Race

[metta 0]

sourcesource

<h2 class="h2-article">Karl Rove on the Democratic Race</h2> Hannity & Colmes

COLMES: We now continue with Karl Rove. Karl, we kind of know what's happening with the Republicans, but the Democrats are a big question mark. How do you see it going on from here and the delegate count is what it's all about. We're going to bring you -- I guess you got the blackboard there with the Democrats on it.

ROVE: I do. This is really complicated. First of all, the Democrats are very -- the Associated Press says Hillary has 832 delegates, and Obama has 821. Now, they need 2025 to nominate. They are both a long way from it. But closely -- you know, closely bunched up there. This week, there are 182 delegates yet to be chosen in caucuses and primaries on Friday -- or excuse me on Saturday and Sunday.

COLMES: Right.

GA_googleFillSlot("RCP_Article_Middle_300x250"); e9 = new Object(); e9.size = "300x250";

YesNo

YesNo

YesNo

Powered by: Insweb.com ROVE: Louisiana, Washington State and Nebraska vote on Saturday and on Sunday is Maine with a caucus. These should advantage Obama because there are three caucuses. As you recall, on Tuesday night he did really well in the caucus states. And then, of course, Louisiana has a substantial African-American population. Washington State does not, but it is a caucus state. Nebraska is a primary and Maine is a caucus.

Then, next Tuesday, we have the so-called Potomac or Chesapeake Primary with 168 delegates. Senator Clinton should do well in Virginia. It should be offset by roughly equal performance in Maryland by Senator Obama and then District of Columbia, which should go to Obama. Again, 168 delegates, because of the proportional rules, this really means that one candidate or the other will literally gain 5 or 10 delegates on the opposition.

Then, later in the month we have Wisconsin, which is likely to be good Obama territory, and Puerto Rico, which is likely to be good for Senator Clinton. But the big one is March 4th, where we have Texas with 193 delegates, Ohio with 141. Both of those should be good for Clinton. And Vermont with 15, which should be good for Senator Obama. But 349 delegates and winning it by the margin that I think Senator Clinton is likely to get means that she is going to pick up more territory here on the 4th than Obama is going to pick up earlier in February.

COLMES: At this point Karl -- this is risky territory, but could you predict who the nominee will be for the Democrats based on what you know?

ROVE: I think it's going to be Senator Clinton because I think Senator Obama's best shots are largely behind him. That is to say, between what has been voted on through Tuesday night and what comes in February, he has had more caucus states where he does well and he has had most of the states that have substantial African-American populations, where he has done extremely well.

But, look, it's going to be a very close contest. I suspect that it's ultimately going -- the margin of victory is going to be decided by how the Super Delegates split. That is to say, the delegates that are actually elected in caucuses and primaries will be closely divided, probably with a small advantage to Senator Clinton, maybe with a small advantage to Senator Obama. But I think ultimately what happens among those Super Delegates will provide the margin of victory and give a little bit of acceleration to the winner by giving him or her a slightly larger margin.

HANNITY: Karl, I like that blackboard here. Honestly, that's a fascinating analysis.

COLMES: Very high tech.

HANNITY: Super Tuesday, Obama wins 13 states, she wins eight states. The news was that night that she won the delegate count. Turns out that Barack Obama won the delegate count. Then we hear issues of financial woes that she's having. So my question is one of momentum. Did Barack Obama, as evidenced by the money that is coming into his campaign and her money financial struggles, is that going to factor in, that is he gaining here?

ROVE: Well, she is going to be outspent. She was outspent on Tuesday night. But, look, if he brings in 7.2 million dollars and she brings in 6.4 million dollars on the Internet within a 48 hour period, that's roughly equal. We are talking about who got their email message out first and, you know, I suspect he will continue to out raise her. But it's not going to be by a margin enough to guarantee a victory.

She has some intangible assets in the form of the nature of the contests that are yet to come. You mention he won more state. Think about the states that he won. He won Idaho. Does anybody realistically think that Idaho is going to be won by the Democrats in the fall? It was a caucus with literally with a handful of people voting. North Dakota, there were 17,000 people in North Dakota voted in the Democratic caucuses or 18,000. That is a small fraction of the state's Democrats, who are an embattled minority.

HANNITY: Go ahead.

ROVE: The caucuses gave him a big advantage. Without the caucuses, if those had been primaries -- take a look at Idaho and Utah, I mean, you know, Clinton did a lot better in a primary state in Utah than she did in a caucus state just to the north that shares a lot of characteristics.

HANNITY: Karl, am I right in my thinking that if I'm John McCain, I would rather go up against Hillary than Barack Obama? We're short on time.

ROVE: Yes, absolutely. Everybody knows who she is and has strong opinions about her.

HANNITY: We expect the blackboard on every appearance. But in all sincerity, Karl Rove, the architect, welcome to the Fox News Channel.

ROVE: It will be back.

HANNITY: I hope it will be.

ROVE: Thank you.

COLMES: That's tax deductible, by the way, that blackboard. Business expense.

[w¡n9Nµ7 §£@¥€r 123]

... the margin of victory is going to be decided by how the Super Delegates split. That is to say, the delegates that are actually elected in caucuses and primaries will be closely divided, probably with a small advantage to Senator Clinton, maybe with a small advantage to Senator Obama. But I think ultimately what happens among those Super Delegates will provide the margin of victory and give a little bit of acceleration to the winner by giving him or her a slightly larger margin.

Yeap. The party establishment will have to break the tie and they will probably go Clinton.

I wish that weren't so, but I believe it is.

[one...two...tree 2,762]

Yeap. The party establishment will have to break the tie and they will probably go Clinton.

I wish that weren't so, but I believe it is.

I don't know. They're ultimate goal is to win the WH, like the Republicans. They're not blind to the polls. They'll know which candidate will have the best chance of going up against McCain.

[w¡n9Nµ7 §£@¥€r 123]

Yeap. The party establishment will have to break the tie and they will probably go Clinton.

I wish that weren't so, but I believe it is.

I don't know. They're ultimate goal is to win the WH, like the Republicans. They're not blind to the polls. They'll know which candidate will have the best chance of going up against McCain.

Dude... McCain is a deeply flawed candidate. Either Dem will kill him.

[one...two...tree 2,762]

Yeap. The party establishment will have to break the tie and they will probably go Clinton.

I wish that weren't so, but I believe it is.

I don't know. They're ultimate goal is to win the WH, like the Republicans. They're not blind to the polls. They'll know which candidate will have the best chance of going up against McCain.

Dude... McCain is a deeply flawed candidate. Either Dem will kill him.

Both Hillary and McCain are deeply flawed candidates, although with McCain, his flaw was following what he thought was right rather than towing the party line. That is most appealing to independents. Hillary's biggest flaw is that she's wants to be in power at all cost, which is a big turn off, at least to the empowered young voters.

[no name 1]

Yeap. The party establishment will have to break the tie and they will probably go Clinton.

I wish that weren't so, but I believe it is.

I don't know. They're ultimate goal is to win the WH, like the Republicans. They're not blind to the polls. They'll know which candidate will have the best chance of going up against McCain.

Dude... McCain is a deeply flawed candidate. Either Dem will kill him.

Both Hillary and McCain are deeply flawed candidates, although with McCain, his flaw was following what he thought was right rather than towing the party line. That is most appealing to independents. Hillary's biggest flaw is that she's wants to be in power at all cost, which is a big turn off, at least to the empowered young voters.

Are those the same young voters who she carried in Cali & Mass.?

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/02/05/nyregion...amp;oref=slogin

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/02/05/m...id_n_85210.html

Edited February 9, 2008 by devilette