International reaction to Iowa caucus

[mawilson 2,133]

Brussels

One Brussels-based European diplomat said: ”It looks likely we’ll have a Democrat in the

White House come next January, so the question for Europe is how Barack Obama or

Hillary Clinton would get to grips with the foreign policy challenges that lie ahead – in Iraq,

Afghanistan, Pakistan, the Middle East.”

A second European diplomat said: ”Clinton has a fight on her hands after Iowa, but you

shouldn’t underestimate her. I still think she could go all the way.”

There was no official European Union reaction to the Iowa results.

France

Dominique Moisi, a senior adviser at France’s Institute for International Relations:

“If the election in November were to be between Barack Obama and Mike Huckabee they

would be highly symbolic of the opposition between American universalism, embodied by

Obama, and American exceptionalism, incarnated by Huckabee. Such a contest goes far

beyond blue America versus red America.

“Both Obama and Huckabee represent hope. But Obama represents represents the

universal values of the American revolution and of openness to the world. For Huckabee,

hope lies in Christian fundamentalism and America turning in on itself.

India

Rajiv Kumar, director of the Indian Council for Research on International Economic Relations,

an economic policy think tank based in New Delhi:

What happens in the US is of “significant interest for us in India. We are hoping that after

the race is clearer and the primaries are over, the heavy emphasis on domestic and

protectionist concerns will get weakened as the two main candidates ready for the race for

the White House itself.”

Egypt

Abdel Monem Said, director of the Al-Ahram Centre for Political and Strategic Studies in Cairo:

“Obama will change a lot of the perception of the US, the US which looks like the leader of

the white world, the old colonial power, somehow the inheritor of Christendom … but now

you have an African-American who is handsome at the same time with a family around him,

with Hussein in the middle of his name - I guess it will crack new walls in our side of the

world, certainly he will change a lot of the image in our part of the world.”

“Barack will certainly have a fresh look on the Middle East, that will be cosmopolitan, that

will be humanitarian, assimilating the Middle East into the global trends, he will be probably,

with much more sharpening another, (Bill) Clinton in a sense.”

“But Huckabee will be different I guess, he will be wary of the Middle East he will be ready to

absorb more of the power politics and some of Bush’s policy. But probably he will be much

more wise, but we don’t know much about his machinery and the people working for him.

But we are still very early in the game.”

Dubai

Mustafa Alani, security analyst at the Dubai-based Gulf Research Centre:

“For the Democratic [race] it [the result] was a surprise.

“Now it is anybody’s race really, and I believe more eyes are going to watch the

developments.

“I think Obama we don’t consider him as a strong president. Okay, we understand that

election promises are not always going to be a policy, but we need a strong president,

we need a strong character that is going to invest in the security of the region.

Indonesia

Despite Barack Obama’s personal links to Indonesia - he spent two years as a child in

Jakarta - the Indonesian foreign ministry declined to comment on his Iowa caucus victory.

“We have no preference over whom the American people choose to be their next

president,’’ said Kristiarto Legowo, a spokesman.

Dewi Fortuna Anwar, a former presidential foreign policy adviser, said most Indonesians

would clearly like to see Mr Obama elected and not just because of his connections to the

south-east Asian nation.

“The symbolism alone of a coloured person becoming president would transform the US’s

image overnight.’’

Australia

Stephen Roberts, Research director at Lehman Brothers:

“This is so early in the process that markets really can’t take anything out of this one tiny

sample. It’s still impossible to say who will run, no matter who will be president in the end,

so there’s nothing to base an investment decision on. Maybe when Super Tuesday is out

the way, we will know more.”

China

Dong Tao, Chief China Economist with Credit Suisse, Hong Kong:

”It’s way too early to think about how this will impact Asian countries. The winner in the

first result is not necessarily the candidate for each party.

“But in general, if the Democrats get into office they are likely to take a more protectionist

attitude in international trade especially when the US economy slows down. The Republicans

are seen as more pro-business and pro-liberalisation.”

FT

[no name 1]

Brussels

One Brussels-based European diplomat said: ”It looks likely we’ll have a Democrat in the

White House come next January, so the question for Europe is how Barack Obama or

Hillary Clinton would get to grips with the foreign policy challenges that lie ahead – in Iraq,

Afghanistan, Pakistan, the Middle East.”

A second European diplomat said: ”Clinton has a fight on her hands after Iowa, but you

shouldn’t underestimate her. I still think she could go all the way.”

There was no official European Union reaction to the Iowa results.

France

Dominique Moisi, a senior adviser at France’s Institute for International Relations:

“If the election in November were to be between Barack Obama and Mike Huckabee they

would be highly symbolic of the opposition between American universalism, embodied by

Obama, and American exceptionalism, incarnated by Huckabee. Such a contest goes far

beyond blue America versus red America.

“Both Obama and Huckabee represent hope. But Obama represents represents the

universal values of the American revolution and of openness to the world. For Huckabee,

hope lies in Christian fundamentalism and America turning in on itself.

India

Rajiv Kumar, director of the Indian Council for Research on International Economic Relations,

an economic policy think tank based in New Delhi:

What happens in the US is of “significant interest for us in India. We are hoping that after

the race is clearer and the primaries are over, the heavy emphasis on domestic and

protectionist concerns will get weakened as the two main candidates ready for the race for

the White House itself.”

Egypt

Abdel Monem Said, director of the Al-Ahram Centre for Political and Strategic Studies in Cairo:

“Obama will change a lot of the perception of the US, the US which looks like the leader of

the white world, the old colonial power, somehow the inheritor of Christendom … but now

you have an African-American who is handsome at the same time with a family around him,

with Hussein in the middle of his name - I guess it will crack new walls in our side of the

world, certainly he will change a lot of the image in our part of the world.”

“Barack will certainly have a fresh look on the Middle East, that will be cosmopolitan, that

will be humanitarian, assimilating the Middle East into the global trends, he will be probably,

with much more sharpening another, (Bill) Clinton in a sense.”

“But Huckabee will be different I guess, he will be wary of the Middle East he will be ready to

absorb more of the power politics and some of Bush’s policy. But probably he will be much

more wise, but we don’t know much about his machinery and the people working for him.

But we are still very early in the game.”

Dubai

Mustafa Alani, security analyst at the Dubai-based Gulf Research Centre:

“For the Democratic [race] it [the result] was a surprise.

“Now it is anybody’s race really, and I believe more eyes are going to watch the

developments.

“I think Obama we don’t consider him as a strong president. Okay, we understand that

election promises are not always going to be a policy, but we need a strong president,

we need a strong character that is going to invest in the security of the region.

Indonesia

Despite Barack Obama’s personal links to Indonesia - he spent two years as a child in

Jakarta - the Indonesian foreign ministry declined to comment on his Iowa caucus victory.

“We have no preference over whom the American people choose to be their next

president,’’ said Kristiarto Legowo, a spokesman.

Dewi Fortuna Anwar, a former presidential foreign policy adviser, said most Indonesians

would clearly like to see Mr Obama elected and not just because of his connections to the

south-east Asian nation.

“The symbolism alone of a coloured person becoming president would transform the US’s

image overnight.’’

Australia

Stephen Roberts, Research director at Lehman Brothers:

“This is so early in the process that markets really can’t take anything out of this one tiny

sample. It’s still impossible to say who will run, no matter who will be president in the end,

so there’s nothing to base an investment decision on. Maybe when Super Tuesday is out

the way, we will know more.”

China

Dong Tao, Chief China Economist with Credit Suisse, Hong Kong:

”It’s way too early to think about how this will impact Asian countries. The winner in the

first result is not necessarily the candidate for each party.

“But in general, if the Democrats get into office they are likely to take a more protectionist

attitude in international trade especially when the US economy slows down. The Republicans

are seen as more pro-business and pro-liberalisation.”

FT

Australia has the right train of thought. An Iowa winner has not won the presidency since 1976. It's one caucus, it's means very little.

[Jenn! 918]

France

Dominique Moisi, a senior adviser at France's Institute for International Relations:

"If the election in November were to be between Barack Obama and Mike Huckabee they

would be highly symbolic of the opposition between American universalism, embodied by

Obama, and American exceptionalism, incarnated by Huckabee. Such a contest goes far

beyond blue America versus red America.

Interesting.

[Alex+R 0]

France

Dominique Moisi, a senior adviser at France's Institute for International Relations:

"If the election in November were to be between Barack Obama and Mike Huckabee they

would be highly symbolic of the opposition between American universalism, embodied by

Obama, and American exceptionalism, incarnated by Huckabee. Such a contest goes far

beyond blue America versus red America.

Interesting.

Indeed. Indeed. :dons silk robe, strokes mustache and lights cigar:

[no name 1]

France

Dominique Moisi, a senior adviser at France's Institute for International Relations:

"If the election in November were to be between Barack Obama and Mike Huckabee they

would be highly symbolic of the opposition between American universalism, embodied by

Obama, and American exceptionalism, incarnated by Huckabee. Such a contest goes far

beyond blue America versus red America.

Interesting.

Perhaps but the Rep frontrunner WASN'T EVEN RUNNING in Iowa. I wish people would just shut up & watch over the next 35 days.

[LaL 418]

[Ban Hammer 13,643]

France

Dominique Moisi, a senior adviser at France's Institute for International Relations:

"If the election in November were to be between Barack Obama and Mike Huckabee they

would be highly symbolic of the opposition between American universalism, embodied by

Obama, and American exceptionalism, incarnated by Huckabee. Such a contest goes far

beyond blue America versus red America.

Interesting.

Indeed. Indeed. :dons silk robe, strokes mustache and lights cigar:

you have a mustache and smoke cigars?

are you monica lewinsky?

[mustang-sally 8]

From the UK Guardian

Clinton leads New Hampshire poll

Mark Tran and agencies

Friday January 4, 2008

Guardian Unlimited

The US presidential candidates are now heading for New Hampshire, with Hillary Clinton, who suffered a surprise setback in Iowa, leading Barack Obama in a poll released today.

A Reuters/C-SPAN/Zogby poll gave the New York Democratic senator and Republican John McCain leads in New Hampshire, but the polling was completed before the verdict in Iowa, where Obama's victory is expected to give him a bounce for Tuesday's vote.

The poll put Clinton ahead of Obama by 32% to 26%. The former senator, John Edwards, the runner-up in Iowa, was at 20%. No other Democrat was in double digits. Nationally, Clinton also holds a wide lead over Obama. Rasmussen, the pollsters, put Clinton at 41% and Obama at 24%. But Iowa may shift the numbers strongly in his favour.

Clinton's image of invincibility was dented after a disappointing third place in the Iowa caucuses, but the New York senator told a rally in the north-eastern state that she alone among the Democratic field had the battle-hardened experience to take on the special interests to reform healthcare in the US, where millions have no health insurance.

"People desperately want to change the political system," Clinton told her supporters, "I have fought the special interests." Despite her famed political machine, Clinton, who would be America's first woman president, was eclipsed by Obama in Iowa. The Illinois senator struck a chord with younger voters with his theme of hope and change.

Obama, who drew 38% of his party's votes in Iowa, strongly boosted his credibility against Clinton, who had been a strong favourite for the Democratic nomination.

"We are choosing hope over fear. We're choosing unity over division and sending a powerful message that change is coming to America," Obama told a raucous, cheering crowd.

While failing to win in New Hampshire would not necessarily be terminal for Clinton, she badly needs a victory to take the wind out of Obama's sails. Edwards faces an even tougher task because he has less money than either of his rivals.

Alluding to his financially disadvantaged status, the former North Carolina senator said: " We're not going to have an auction. We're going to have an election in four days."

Edwards said he had faced two well-funded "celebrity candidates" in Iowa. He said he was not the candidate of money, glitz or glamour, but "the people's candidate".

In the Republican camp, the surprise winner, Mike Huckabee, the Baptist preacher who until two months ago was virtually unknown outside his native Arkansas, faces a tough task in translating his success in Iowa to New Hampshire.

John McCain, the Arizona senator and Vietnam war veteran, did respectably in Iowa despite virtually ignoring the state. In New Hampshire, he leads the polls with 31.3%. Mitt Romney, the former Massachusetts governor, is in second place with 28.8% and Rudy Giuliani is third at 10%.

Huckabee, who won in Iowa thanks to strong support from Christian voters, is registering 9.5%, although Iowa may boost his chances. Huckabee has hardly campaigned in New Hampshire and he enters the state with little money and little time to mount a last-minute surge.

History also counts against him. George Bush senior in 1980, Bob Dole in 1988 and 1996 and George W Bush in 2000 won in Iowa, but lost in New Hampshire.

Iowa was a good result for McCain as it weakened Romney, who put a lot of time and money into the state only to be trumped by Huckabee's folksy appeal. Huckabee told NBC he hoped his big win would push him to the front of the pack in the more moderate New Hampshire.

"Well, we'd certainly come into this scene with momentum," he said. "We also know that we may not win New Hampshire, although, you know, who knows, we might. We've overperformed rather than underperformed every step of this journey."

[eric&gen 0]

I have a silly question to ask but what is a cOuOs?

[w¡n9Nµ7 §£@¥€r 123]

Perhaps but the Rep frontrunner WASN'T EVEN RUNNING in Iowa. I wish people would just shut up & watch over the next 35 days.

Hillary ran. She ran aggressively. And she lost.

She lost to Obama. She lost to Edwards.

She can come back in NH but that doesn't change the fact that she's going in as the underdog.

[no name 1]

Perhaps but the Rep frontrunner WASN'T EVEN RUNNING in Iowa. I wish people would just shut up & watch over the next 35 days.

Hillary ran. She ran aggressively. And she lost.

She lost to Obama. She lost to Edwards.

She can come back in NH but that doesn't change the fact that she's going in as the underdog.

I said Rep, not Dem.

[w¡n9Nµ7 §£@¥€r 123]

Rep is irrelevant. Obama ran against Hil. Hil ran. Rudy not running makes Huck's victory less relevant, not Obama's.

[eric&gen 0]

caucus

cockus

Sounds the same to me.

[Jenn! 918]

Rep is irrelevant. Obama ran against Hil. Hil ran. Rudy not running makes Huck's victory less relevant, not Obama's.

Rudy got votes. I don't understand - by not running do you mean not campaigning?

[no name 1]

Rep is irrelevant. Obama ran against Hil. Hil ran. Rudy not running makes Huck's victory less relevant, not Obama's.

Rudy got votes. I don't understand - by not running do you mean not campaigning?

yep.