Buy your ticket before the interview..

[Rachel & Tom 9]

hello Dear VJ's

is it okay to have plans before the visa petition interview? Like buying ticket, because it is cheaper if we book ahead of time, right?

will it affect the decision of giving you K1 visa?

thank you VJ's family

My husband got approved at his interview on September 6th 2012 but didnt have his visa in hand untill January 9th 2013.... so i would wait

[san diego 407]

This is really funny.... Can tell he doesn't read the fine print... You do have to pay the changing fee, but you also have to pay the difference in the ticket prices.... Like they say, nothing is free...

No, what is actually funny is level of your logic and statistical knowledge. You re forgetting that you would have to pay higher fair anyway since you would be buying tickets at the same time as hanging hem. For example, if higher fair is $1,500, and you bought ahead of time for $800, you have to pay $700 +$100-150 in fees. If you buy from scratch you are paying $1,500 anyway. So, all you are risking is $100-150, which is worthwhile for most people. Now, this is where statistics kicks in. Let's say the chance of visa arriving in time is 60% and 40% being late. Let's say that you buy tickets ahead of time and they cost you in average $800 (Russia to LAX). If you buy ticket 1 eek in advance once visa in hand the cost is $1,500. If you miss the plane due to late visa the cost becomes $1,650 (worst case scenario). Let's even assume that chances are 50/50 (even though they are much higher). Thus, Expected Value of the cost for visa if you buy ahead of time with chance of delay = 0.5*$1,650 + 0.5*$800 = $1,225, which is still better then $1,500. In actuality, numbers are even in greater favor of buying tickets ahead of time. the only way you can have Expected Cost better is if you do what Gary did - his fiancee arrived one month after visa was in hand. Now, this is matter of personal choice. Knowledge is power, my friend!

[san diego 407]

the last time I checked refundable tickets for an international flight are like double in cost. Its a no win situation and you are right YOU just got LUCKY.

No, I was talking about NON_REFUNDABLE tickets. Refundable you can just get money back. Non-refundable you can exchange them for another date with $100-150 fee plus difference in fair.

[san diego 407]

But it's not like you HAVE to fly a day or a week after getting a visa, right?

Some people get lucky, but some not. And some tickets have restrictions, so the changing fee may be higher.

Approximately. Sometimes it depends on your medical exam date, because your visa might be valid till your medical exam expires.

Depends on the embassy and your confidence level. Obviously! However, Russia is considered a very low fraud country in immigration so you have about 99% chance. In addition, we met 8 times before the interview including living together in Mexico for 3 months. So, I was confident. Again, I repeat to everyone, this is the matter of choice, not the rule. You cannot say "don't buy tickets until visa is in hand". It all depends on the factors above. Out of fairness I would agree with the rule "don't make wedding plans" since you have to make them way before the interview is scheduled.

[san diego 407]

No, what is actually funny is level of your logic and statistical knowledge. You re forgetting that you would have to pay higher fair anyway since you would be buying tickets at the same time as hanging hem. For example, if higher fair is $1,500, and you bought ahead of time for $800, you have to pay $700 +$100-150 in fees. If you buy from scratch you are paying $1,500 anyway. So, all you are risking is $100-150, which is worthwhile for most people. Now, this is where statistics kicks in. Let's say the chance of visa arriving in time is 60% and 40% being late. Let's say that you buy tickets ahead of time and they cost you in average $800 (Russia to LAX). If you buy ticket 1 eek in advance once visa in hand the cost is $1,500. If you miss the plane due to late visa the cost becomes $1,650 (worst case scenario). Let's even assume that chances are 50/50 (even though they are much higher). Thus, Expected Value of the cost for visa if you buy ahead of time with chance of delay = 0.5*$1,650 + 0.5*$800 = $1,225, which is still better then $1,500. In actuality, numbers are even in greater favor of buying tickets ahead of time. the only way you can have Expected Cost better is if you do what Gary did - his fiancee arrived one month after visa was in hand. Now, this is matter of personal choice. Knowledge is power, my friend!

I can even take this statistics further and assume chances for uncertainty for future short-notice ticket price. Let's say there is 10% chance that ticket will remain $800, 20% chance that it becomes $1,000, 20% chance that it will cost $1,400, 20% chance that it will cost $1,700, and 10% chance for $2,000 (being company executive and frequent traveler I can assure you these are real chances). Expected Value for buying in advance = 0.5*800 + 0.05*800 + 0.1*1000 + 0.1*1,400 + 0.1*1,700 + 0.05*2,000 + $150 (fee)*0.5 = $1,025. Expected value for buying 1 week before once visa in hand = 0.1*800+0.2*1,000 + 0.2*1,400+0.2*1,700 + 0.1*2,000 = $1,100. Still, Expected cost is lower, including fees (worst fees) for buying in advance. And I provided worst spread of chances - 50/50!

[sarsorti 36]

This is really funny.... Can tell he doesn't read the fine print... You do have to pay the changing fee, but you also have to pay the difference in the ticket prices.... Like they say, nothing is free...

Exactly which could end up costing more than a last minute ticket, most likely it will.

Edited January 11, 2013 by sarsorti

[JensJrny2Ray 367]

I can even take this statistics further and assume chances for uncertainty for future short-notice ticket price. Let's say there is 10% chance that ticket will remain $800, 20% chance that it becomes $1,000, 20% chance that it will cost $1,400, 20% chance that it will cost $1,700, and 10% chance for $2,000 (being company executive and frequent traveler I can assure you these are real chances). Expected Value for buying in advance = 0.5*800 + 0.05*800 + 0.1*1000 + 0.1*1,400 + 0.1*1,700 + 0.05*2,000 + $150 (fee)*0.5 = $1,025. Expected value for buying 1 week before once visa in hand = 0.1*800+0.2*1,000 + 0.2*1,400+0.2*1,700 + 0.1*2,000 = $1,100. Still, Expected cost is lower, including fees (worst fees) for buying in advance. And I provided worst spread of chances - 50/50!

You remind me of my fiance. Math and logic!

[san diego 407]

Exactly which could end up costing more than a last minute ticket, most likely it will.

Did you look at statistics which is absolutely objective or this is beyond things that you consider?

You remind me of my fiance. Math and logic!

Thank you)

[sarsorti 36]

Did you look at statistics which is absolutely objective or this is beyond things that you consider?

Thank you)

To be perfectly honest it's way above my head so I guess it's fair to say that it IS beyond something I would have considered. Now I wonder if it's all the same or varies by country and airlines? If I had to make an amateur guess I would say yes the stats vary by country and/or airline.

BTW thanks for the stats...interesting and thoughtful.

[san diego 407]

To be perfectly honest it's way above my head so I guess it's fair to say that it IS beyond something I would have considered. Now I wonder if it's all the same or varies by country and airlines? If I had to make an amateur guess I would say yes the stats vary by country and/or airline.

BTW thanks for the stats...interesting and thoughtful.

You're welcome. I do travel around the world a lot due to nature of my business, so it is pretty universal for all international airlines and thus around he world. Currently they are grouped into 3 major alliances. Prices in each (and thus for all world airlines) are pretty much dictated by its leading airlines: American, United/Continental, and Delta. These 3 alliances are competitive in nature and pricing is similar around the world. It is based on popularity of one or another route, competition on this specific route, distance, etc. However, pricing structure is very similar, so is increases in fairs based on the timing of purchase. Most of the income for major airlines come from business travelers like myself, not from tourists. Most of the time business travelers purchase tickets <1 week before he flight, so this is their opportunity to make money, so no matter what they will hike up the price even if they have plenty of space. By similar pricing structure I meant that % by which base fair in increased with time is about the same. For example, if base fair from Russia to LAX is $800, 1 week before it will most likely cost $1,500. If, in other instance, ticket from Algeria (base fair) costs $1,400, most likely fair price 1 week before will be around $2,000 or a little more.

Edited January 11, 2013 by san diego

[Darnell 8,478]

You remind me of my fiance. Math and logic!

and bathing !

Hey's some trip-y stuff -

ask him to compute an 89 percent confidence interval on yer visa packet arriving on a specific date (you pick this first) after visa interview.

[seafoodman 0]

question ? so if they buy a ticket before the interview outcome,go through the interview but then they dont receive a reply before the flight date,why cant they use the flight to see their fiance and then book another flight for later when they have the visa ? is it purely money being discussed here or is there another reason not to book a flight before the interview, am i missing something ? im telling myself that its money being discussed and not that its detrimental to the visa process or a refusal of entry ?

[Darnell 8,478]

Most folk not in the VWP have this luxury of just jumping on the plane, alas.

[sarsorti 36]

You're welcome. I do travel around the world a lot due to nature of my business, so it is pretty universal for all international airlines and thus around he world. Currently they are grouped into 3 major alliances. Prices in each (and thus for all world airlines) are pretty much dictated by its leading airlines: American, United/Continental, and Delta. These 3 alliances are competitive in nature and pricing is similar around the world. It is based on popularity of one or another route, competition on this specific route, distance, etc. However, pricing structure is very similar, so is increases in fairs based on the timing of purchase. Most of the income for major airlines come from business travelers like myself, not from tourists. Most of the time business travelers purchase tickets <1 week before he flight, so this is their opportunity to make money, so no matter what they will hike up the price even if they have plenty of space. By similar pricing structure I meant that % by which base fair in increased with time is about the same. For example, if base fair from Russia to LAX is $800, 1 week before it will most likely cost $1,500. If, in other instance, ticket from Algeria (base fair) costs $1,400, most likely fair price 1 week before will be around $2,000 or a little more.

Just a thought to add I did notice no matter when you buy the ticket it is always cheaper to buy a round trip ticket than a one-way. Like you say, for example, one way to Algiers is $2,500 and round trip is $1,250, it makes no sense to me. It is the same leaving Algiers as well, we are better off to purchase a round trip ticket even though he will not be returning. Can you explain or do you understand the logistics of this?

Edited January 12, 2013 by sarsorti

[BaBamSam 239]

Just a thought to add I did notice no matter when you buy the ticket it is always cheaper to buy a round trip ticket than a one-way. Like you say, for example, one way to Algiers is $2,500 and round trip is $1,250, it makes no sense to me. It is the same leaving Algiers as well, we are better off to purchase a round trip ticket even though he will not be returning. Can you explain or do you understand the logistics of this?

I have an answer to this one. One way tickets are priced higher because it is usually businesses that need to buy them (and usually last minute). Many business trips can't buy a roundtrip because they don't know a return date or it might change last minute. It's really just the airlines taking advantage of business travelers (or rather the companies that pay travel expenses).