For Stats Lovers

[Hannah and Giulio 1]

Hey everybody!

Some of you might be interested in these graphs i made, I think some of them are significative.

And the one i think is the most interesting:

I know what many of you think and I agree: every case is different and it's useless to rely on the stats for your own petition. But this for me it's an hobby and a passion, so just enjoy the statistics

(Nonetheless, beying a VSCer, I appreciate the fact that they're picking up the pace)

Edited May 6, 2011 by Hannah and Giulio

[canadian_wife 1,818]

Where did you get your data from?

[Hannah and Giulio 1]

Where did you get your data from?

Igor's List! Is there any way i can edit my post? Two images have a wrong link

[Hannah and Giulio 1]

Here they are. Regarding this graphs, you gotta keep in mind that Igor's List shows data from not more than 12 months ago. This means that the graphs are so low in the summer 2010 because the graph shows ONLY people who got their NOA2 in the summer 2012 AND their NOA1 less than 12 months ago, and of course they're not many

[I+H 11]

Nice! I like these!

[TBoneTX 45,063]

They look significative, si man.

[Andie 147]

This is cool... thanks. (also a VSCer so anything like this is encouraging)

[ThaitoUSA 15]

Where did you get your data from?

The implications of the response to this question are profound. Context is vital must be defined. For example, it is important to note that IGOR list is just a sampling of the total number of I-129F petitions filed. From the State Dept. website ( http://www.travel.state.gov/pdf/FY2010NIVWorkloadbyVisaCategory.pdf ) it can be seen that they processed a total of 32,288 K-1 visa petitions during FY 2010. It could be inferred that even more I-129F petitions had been submitted to USCIS, but were withdrawn, rejected, etc.

The latest "Immigration Timelines" data reveals 1786 petitions being filed in the past 360 days ( http://www.visajourney.com/timeline/stats.php?cfl=$cfl ) while

the latest IGOR data reveals 24011 records of petitions being filed in the past 53 weeks ( http://cse.ssl.berkeley.edu/igor/vjdata/stats.aspx ) .

Of all VJ records, there is a percentage of which do not update their statuses as being accepted, rejected, withdrawn, etc.

From the above context, it would appear that the sample size from Timelines and/or IGOR would be large enough for 99% confidence level with a 3% margin of error.

[OSMAN R&M 0]

Hey everybody!

Some of you might be interested in these graphs i made, I think some of them are significative.

And the one i think is the most interesting:

I know what many of you think and I agree: every case is different and it's useless to rely on the stats for your own petition. But this for me it's an hobby and a passion, so just enjoy the statistics

(Nonetheless, beying a VSCer, I appreciate the fact that they're picking up the pace)

I am happy you like statistics but this dont count for some of us left behind..

looks like there is no hope for us....

everyone is moving faster and faster and who ever has my case must

be sitting on it for some ungodly reason....

Dont they know they hold peoples lives in there hands...

Some of us just want our loved ones no matter what....

Just pray that one day i will get good news like everyone else...

God be with us all

[Hannah and Giulio 1]

I am happy you like statistics but this dont count for some of us left behind..

looks like there is no hope for us....

everyone is moving faster and faster and who ever has my case must

be sitting on it for some ungodly reason....

Dont they know they hold peoples lives in there hands...

Some of us just want our loved ones no matter what....

Just pray that one day i will get good news like everyone else...

God be with us all

I'm so sorry to hear that and we're praying for you. You'll get your NOA2 very soon!

And i took a look at your timeline and you're a November filer. Believe me, you're not alone. Only about 62% of november filers have been approved so far, that means that around 38% (including you) are still waiting for their NOA2. I'm sure you'll get it soon, you and your loved one don't lose hope! It could even be this monday!

[Hannah and Giulio 1]

The implications of the response to this question are profound. Context is vital must be defined. For example, it is important to note that IGOR list is just a sampling of the total number of I-129F petitions filed. From the State Dept. website ( http://www.travel.state.gov/pdf/FY2010NIVWorkloadbyVisaCategory.pdf ) it can be seen that they processed a total of 32,288 K-1 visa petitions during FY 2010. It could be inferred that even more I-129F petitions had been submitted to USCIS, but were withdrawn, rejected, etc.

The latest "Immigration Timelines" data reveals 1786 petitions being filed in the past 360 days ( http://www.visajourney.com/timeline/stats.php?cfl=$cfl ) while

the latest IGOR data reveals 24011 records of petitions being filed in the past 53 weeks ( http://cse.ssl.berkeley.edu/igor/vjdata/stats.aspx ) .

Of all VJ records, there is a percentage of which do not update their statuses as being accepted, rejected, withdrawn, etc.

From the above context, it would appear that the sample size from Timelines and/or IGOR would be large enough for 99% confidence level with a 3% margin of error.

You're 100% right. And the data, as said before, comes from IGORs list. There is no "activity" filter of any sort, so in the graph you see people that didn't update their statuses. Including such filter wouldn't be difficult though. As you said, IGOR sample size is big enough to give us a good estimate of what the real conditions are, even if they process WAY more petitions than the ones that we see here on Visa Journey.

Statistics should never be applied to a single case. If you toss a coin getting 5 heads in a row (very difficult ) and you have to guess what the 6th toss will be, it is absolutely irrational to say "tails" basing your decision on top of the previous results, because the odds of a single toss are always 50/50 (with a fair coin of course)

Getting a visa obviously is not a coin toss, but all this was to say that statistics will never be able to tell you what is your approval time with 100% precision. Every case is different and unpredictable. It would be like trying to predict if you'll get a RFE by looking statistically how many people get RFEs, nonsense.

So yea, statistics are nice to look at and can give you an idea of what your approval time should be, but they should never be taken as truth tables! Your petition is your own and there are too many variables in play to predict when and what the result will be. Hah, long post See ya!!

Edited May 7, 2011 by Hannah and Giulio