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Question about timeline stats

By mrc in K-1 Fiance(e) Visa Process & Procedures

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mrc Proficient

mrc   0

Posted
Filed: Lift. Cond. (apr) Country: Philippines
 Timeline
Posted

I've been looking at some numbers with the timeline stats and I have a question. I realize a lot of people use these numbers to get a gauge on how long things will take, but what if someone doesn't finish their timeline.

For instance, one of my personal friends (Nate), received his NOA2 back in April of this year. In fact, he is now married. His fiance/wife came to the U.S. on July 4th. Anyway, I looked at his profile and the bum never finished out his timeline. Won't this affect the numbers? I'm sure he's not the only one...this leads me to believe that the numbers are skewed to the high side, for the most part.

Am I wrong here?

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vartan Proficient

vartan   0

Posted
Filed: K-1 Visa Country: Taiwan
 Timeline
Posted

the answer is green. :D

May 1, 2006 - Submitted I-129F (Overnight) NSC

May 2, 2006 - NOA1

June 1, 2006 - Transferred to CSC

June 14, 2006 - Notice from CSC it was transferred

June 30, 2006 - Received IMBRA RFE (CSC)

July 5, 2006 - Touched (RFE Received)

July 31, 2006 - APPROVED

August 5, 2006 Physical NOA2

August 15, 2006 NVC Received and Sent

August 22, 2006 AIT sent Packet 3

August 22, 2006 Packet 3 got lost in the mail... sending another.. :( :( :(

October 27, 2006 Interview

3dflagsdotcom_chtai_2fawm.gif & 3dflagsdotcom_usa_2fawm.gif3dflagsdotcom_us_co_2fawm.gif

AIT (Taiwan Embassy)

C'mon USCIS Lets get some others approved or else watch for the Trident

brick.jpg

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Alanlvsjudy Community Regular

Alanlvsjudy   0

Posted
Filed: K-1 Visa Country: Philippines
 Timeline
Posted

I havent a clue MrC but I would think they only way to compile data would be from the completed blocs you would just have to add the others as they complete the milestones (NOA2 for example) but hey...I dont know...Im with Vartan...Green!!!

July 17 2006 Sent I-129F to TSC

July 19 2006 packet received by TSC

July 27 2006 case received at CSC

July 28 2006 touched (to process/send NOA1)

Aug 01 2006 check cashed

Aug 05 2006 NOA1 received in mail

Oct 03 2006 Touched (RFE sent)

Oct 10 2006 RFE received and responded to

Oct 17 2006 Touched (CSC reply to RFE response)

Nov 06 2006 NOA2

Nov 21 2006 NVC sent to Manila

Blah

Blur

Drone

March 27 2007 Interview

April 02 2007 Visa delivered

April 05 2007 Happiness delivered

April 06 2007 First day of the rest of our lives

"There they go! I must hurry and catch them, for I am their leader."

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no name Grand Master

no name   1

Posted
Filed: Timeline
Posted
I've been looking at some numbers with the timeline stats and I have a question. I realize a lot of people use these numbers to get a gauge on how long things will take, but what if someone doesn't finish their timeline.

For instance, one of my personal friends (Nate), received his NOA2 back in April of this year. In fact, he is now married. His fiance/wife came to the U.S. on July 4th. Anyway, I looked at his profile and the bum never finished out his timeline. Won't this affect the numbers? I'm sure he's not the only one...this leads me to believe that the numbers are skewed to the high side, for the most part.

Am I wrong here?

You obviously have too much time on your hands, my friend! :P

Only check out the filled in timelines...

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daveandlirio Explorer

daveandlirio   0

Posted
Filed: K-1 Visa Country: Philippines
 Timeline
Posted

Nate sucks! God love him.... :angry:

Timeline

03/13/2006.....NOA1

06/28/2006.....IMBRA Sent

07/08/2006.....RFE Recipt

07/11/2006.....Touched

08/03/2006.....Touched

08/03/2006.....NOA2

08/05/2006.....Touched

08/06/2006.....Touched

08/25/2006.....NVC Receipt

08/28/2006.....NVC Mailed to Manila

116067507481944.gif

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RosaMystica7 Proficient

RosaMystica7   0

Posted
Timeline
Posted
the answer is green. :D

No, it's blue!

8/10/08:

---seperated---

K-1 highlights (more details in profile):

11/24/06: NOA1 (Day 3)

12/19/06: NOA2 (Day 28)

2/28/07: Interview: approved! (Day 99)

4/15/07: Married, in a noreaster (Day 146)

AOS highlights (more details in profile, too):

6/20/07: AOS, EAD, and AP mailed

6/26/07: NOA1 (Day 6)

7/14/07: Biometrics (Day 24)

7/23/07: Recieved AOS RFE (dated 7/17) for W-2s, mailed them out the next day (Day 33)

7/27/07: RFE response received, processing resumed (Day 37)

8/14/07: AOS transferred to CSC (Day 45)

8/21/07: CSC received/is processing AOS (Day 52)

8/29/07: Welcome notice mailed! (Day 60)

8/31/07: Card production ordered! (Day 62)

9/11/07: Greencard in hand! (Day 73)

Note to self: lifting of conditions: May 25th, 2009

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William33 Veteran

William33   110

Posted
Filed: Lift. Cond. (apr) Country: Indonesia
 Timeline
Posted

Mrc,

I agree that the incomplete timelines would throw off the cumulative totals. However, as June people are getting approved now, you can rest assured that you are just around the corner. Those stats are no longer valid anyway.

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Taye500 Enthusiast

Taye500   0

Posted
Filed: K-1 Visa Timeline
Posted

Nate sucks! God love him.... :angry:

HAHAHA...DAVE! See, Dave knows Nate too. Damnit, Nate! You piece of #######.

Dave, send me those pics.

Nate is a drunk !!!

I-129f sent-- 05-26-2006

NOA1 - 06-08-2006

Rfe recieved - 06-30-2006

rfe sent - 06-30-2006

NOA2 - 07-31-2006

NVC received - 08-03-2006

NOA2 recieved in the mail: 08-04-2006

NVC sent : 08-04-2006

NVC letter recieved: 08-10-2006

Embassy confirmed: 08-11-2006

interview date: 11-09-2006

Visa approved : 11-09-2006

Visa recieved : 11-15-200

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Danny&Adri Explorer

Danny&Adri   1

Posted
Filed: K-1 Visa Country: Colombia
 Timeline
Posted
...this leads me to believe that the numbers are skewed to the high side, for the most part.

Am I wrong here?

You are correct, but it can be somewhat overcome if you are careful.

For example: when I try to analyze what is happening with NOA2s right now, I only review those that have reply dates for their RFEs. I make the assumption that if the RFE reply date is not filled out, the person has drop off and not been updating their info.

When analyzing the data, perhaps you could assume anything over x days old is invalid. These are assumptions that could be wrong, but might be necessary when working with imperfect data.

.

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~=~.... pushpin.gif All is going very well !.......................... ~=~

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~=~=~=~=~=~=~=~=~=~=~=~=~=~=~=~=~=~=~=~=~=~

3dflags_col0001-0003a.gif3dflags_usa0001-0003a.gif3dflags_usasc01-0003a.gif

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*Robert* Veteran

*Robert*   2

Posted
Filed: Citizen (apr) Country: Thailand
 Timeline
Posted
I'm sure he's not the only one...this leads me to believe that the numbers are skewed to the high side, for the most part.

Am I wrong here?

You are not wrong, and they do tend to skew the predictions, but you can still get a feel for the amount of time by only taking into account the completed timelines. Just make your own manual calculations instead of relying on the automated calculations.

K-1 Timeline

11-29-05: Mailed I-129F Petition to CSC

12-06-05: NOA1

03-02-06: NOA2

03-23-06: Interview Date May 16

05-17-06: K-1 Visa Issued

05-20-06: Arrived at POE, Honolulu

07-17-06: Married

AOS Timeline

08-14-06: Mailed I-485 to Chicago

08-24-06: NOA for I-485

09-08-06: Biometrics Appointment

09-25-06: I-485 transferred to CSC

09-28-06: I-485 received at CSC

10-18-06: AOS Approved

10-21-06: Approval notice mailed

10-23-06: Received "Welcome Letter"

10-27-06: Received 2 yr Green Card

I-751 Timeline

07-21-08: Mailed I-751 to VSC

07-25-08: NOA for I-751

08-27-08: Biometrics Appointment

02-25-09: I-751 transferred to CSC

04-17-09: I-751 Approved

06-22-09: Received 10 yr Green Card

N-400 Timeline

07-20-09: Mailed N-400 to Lewisville, TX

07-23-09: NOA for N-400

08-14-09: Biometrics Appointment

09-08-09: Interview Date Oct 07

10-30-09: Oath Ceremony

11-20-09: Received Passport!!!

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one...two...tree Grand Master

one...two...tree   2,762

Posted
Filed: Country: Philippines
 Timeline
Posted
Oh, and if you guys don't know the answer to my question about the stats, just make something up so I don't feel stupid for making a thread with no responses but my own.

:lol:

mrc, did you use the new post IMBRA I-129F form when you filed?

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mrc Proficient

mrc   0

Posted
Filed: Lift. Cond. (apr) Country: Philippines
 Timeline
  • Author
Posted

Oh, and if you guys don't know the answer to my question about the stats, just make something up so I don't feel stupid for making a thread with no responses but my own.

:lol:

mrc, did you use the new post IMBRA I-129F form when you filed?

Yes, I waited a few extra weeks to send in the new form. I'm kind of mixed about it now. I see some June approvals already...perhaps I may have to wait a couple extra months because of it. Who knows.

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