January '09 I-129 filers at CSC

[minnew 4]

now the timelines have gone crazy again cuz someone got approved after 249 days so my timeline jumped almost a month

I know me too! Congratulations to the July filer! Hopefully the timelines will go back to April soon once more people get approved! CSC is skipping all over the place! It's not fair! First received first approved policy....but apparently not!

[Nik+Heather 121]

Actually their profile says they think they are getting married next week already!!!

Maybe they confused the visa receipt with NOA2 - which means they are sort of on track??

Anyway, it seems to me that if you want to predict typical, it seems like 90 days for no RFEs, and approval less than a week after you return RFEs.

Uncommon events such as background checks/security checks are not really predictable about how late they make you. I'm holding out for 90 days, which puts us back into the April dates near to the time in Jan that we filed.

[minnew 4]

Actually their profile says they think they are getting married next week already!!!

Maybe they confused the visa receipt with NOA2 - which means they are sort of on track??

Anyway, it seems to me that if you want to predict typical, it seems like 90 days for no RFEs, and approval less than a week after you return RFEs.

Uncommon events such as background checks/security checks are not really predictable about how late they make you. I'm holding out for 90 days, which puts us back into the April dates near to the time in Jan that we filed.

Oh yes that's possible! I did not get to look at their profile. 90 days would satisfy me as well!

[laura819 0]

Actually their profile says they think they are getting married next week already!!!

Maybe they confused the visa receipt with NOA2 - which means they are sort of on track??

Anyway, it seems to me that if you want to predict typical, it seems like 90 days for no RFEs, and approval less than a week after you return RFEs.

Uncommon events such as background checks/security checks are not really predictable about how late they make you. I'm holding out for 90 days, which puts us back into the April dates near to the time in Jan that we filed.

Oh yes that's possible! I did not get to look at their profile. 90 days would satisfy me as well!

90 days would be a dream! I'm gonna go check out their profile....

I'm so nervous about an RFE. ugh

[laura819 0]

Actually their profile says they think they are getting married next week already!!!

Maybe they confused the visa receipt with NOA2 - which means they are sort of on track??

Anyway, it seems to me that if you want to predict typical, it seems like 90 days for no RFEs, and approval less than a week after you return RFEs.

Uncommon events such as background checks/security checks are not really predictable about how late they make you. I'm holding out for 90 days, which puts us back into the April dates near to the time in Jan that we filed.

Oh yes that's possible! I did not get to look at their profile. 90 days would satisfy me as well!

90 days would be a dream! I'm gonna go check out their profile....

I'm so nervous about an RFE. ugh

oh no my time just got even later.

[Nik+Heather 121]

I'm glad you guys check your time lines as often as I do. Makes me feel less crazy for being so obsessive - or at least more average about it.

-H

[laura819 0]

I'm glad you guys check your time lines as often as I do. Makes me feel less crazy for being so obsessive - or at least more average about it.

-H

Im guessing everyone is like this. But I think im gonna start checkin it less often unless it goes back down quickly cuz im really depressed now.

[minnew 4]

I'm glad you guys check your time lines as often as I do. Makes me feel less crazy for being so obsessive - or at least more average about it.

-H

LOL....Yeah by the time this whole process is over I am going to be a full out VJ ADDICT! I am happy that we will all be here to support each other throughout it!

I forgot to add that Captain Ewok posted this about timelines accuracy:

http://www.visajourney.com/forums/index.php?showtopic=180932

Edited February 25, 2009 by minnew

[Nik+Heather 121]

Don't be sad, Laura!

The one that got approved most recently also had the unusual circumstances of "security checks"! It's just bad luck that two in a row are skewing the data.

Did you also notice that the time spread for predicted adjudication has increased? It's nearly a month now! I think that probably has something to do with the vast difference in the data. When most people on the top 15 were around 90 days, it was really tight, about a week. Throw in some unusually high numbers, and it spreads out to a month! Wow!!

I looked at the top 15, and I figure that the time predicted for my adjudication is roughly the same as the average of the last 15 approved.

Here are the high time ones:

284: Security Checks

215: Background Checks

145: Time needed to reply to RFE (34 days)

249: RFE AND Background Checks

126: RFE (43 days to reply)

Throw all those out (or assume you'll be faster with your RFE) and the average goes back down to around 90 days!! Of course, maybe you'll be unlucky enough that you or your fiance's name will come up with a name check as being the same name as some dastardly character (speculation of cause!), and you'll get stuck in checks too.

[minnew 4]

Don't be sad, Laura!

The one that got approved most recently also had the unusual circumstances of "security checks"! It's just bad luck that two in a row are skewing the data.

Did you also notice that the time spread for predicted adjudication has increased? It's nearly a month now! I think that probably has something to do with the vast difference in the data. When most people on the top 15 were around 90 days, it was really tight, about a week. Throw in some unusually high numbers, and it spreads out to a month! Wow!!

I looked at the top 15, and I figure that the time predicted for my adjudication is roughly the same as the average of the last 15 approved.

Here are the high time ones:

284: Security Checks

215: Background Checks

145: Time needed to reply to RFE (34 days)

249: RFE AND Background Checks

126: RFE (43 days to reply)

Throw all those out (or assume you'll be faster with your RFE) and the average goes back down to around 90 days!! Of course, maybe you'll be unlucky enough that you or your fiance's name will come up with a name check as being the same name as some dastardly character (speculation of cause!), and you'll get stuck in checks too.

Yes that's what I am predicting as well, around 90 days. I agree with you that the last two approvals skewed the timelines and I don't see how May-June prediction is possible with the increase in Approximate Processing Dates for Common Forms- I-129F CSC from October 27,2008 to Novemeber 19, 2008.

Now I just pray that CSC will keep on with that pace and I do not end up security checks!

[laura819 0]

Don't be sad, Laura!

The one that got approved most recently also had the unusual circumstances of "security checks"! It's just bad luck that two in a row are skewing the data.

Did you also notice that the time spread for predicted adjudication has increased? It's nearly a month now! I think that probably has something to do with the vast difference in the data. When most people on the top 15 were around 90 days, it was really tight, about a week. Throw in some unusually high numbers, and it spreads out to a month! Wow!!

I looked at the top 15, and I figure that the time predicted for my adjudication is roughly the same as the average of the last 15 approved.

Here are the high time ones:

284: Security Checks

215: Background Checks

145: Time needed to reply to RFE (34 days)

249: RFE AND Background Checks

126: RFE (43 days to reply)

Throw all those out (or assume you'll be faster with your RFE) and the average goes back down to around 90 days!! Of course, maybe you'll be unlucky enough that you or your fiance's name will come up with a name check as being the same name as some dastardly character (speculation of cause!), and you'll get stuck in checks too.

Luckily, my fiance has a really uncommon name so I am hoping nothing will come up!

[minnew 4]

Don't be sad, Laura!

The one that got approved most recently also had the unusual circumstances of "security checks"! It's just bad luck that two in a row are skewing the data.

Did you also notice that the time spread for predicted adjudication has increased? It's nearly a month now! I think that probably has something to do with the vast difference in the data. When most people on the top 15 were around 90 days, it was really tight, about a week. Throw in some unusually high numbers, and it spreads out to a month! Wow!!

I looked at the top 15, and I figure that the time predicted for my adjudication is roughly the same as the average of the last 15 approved.

Here are the high time ones:

284: Security Checks

215: Background Checks

145: Time needed to reply to RFE (34 days)

249: RFE AND Background Checks

126: RFE (43 days to reply)

Throw all those out (or assume you'll be faster with your RFE) and the average goes back down to around 90 days!! Of course, maybe you'll be unlucky enough that you or your fiance's name will come up with a name check as being the same name as some dastardly character (speculation of cause!), and you'll get stuck in checks too.

Luckily, my fiance has a really uncommon name so I am hoping nothing will come up!

My fiance tells me everything will be fine, he's talked to his commanders and they tell him everything will be okay, But I am still worried because he has a TS security clearance and I am wondering what kind of red flags might pop up due to that? Me going through more extensive background check? I already had to get interviewed as a reference in order for him to get his clearance, along with his friends and family members. *sigh*

I am really praying it will be around 90 days but at the same time preparing myself to be possibly waiting alot longer!

[laura819 0]

Don't be sad, Laura!

The one that got approved most recently also had the unusual circumstances of "security checks"! It's just bad luck that two in a row are skewing the data.

Did you also notice that the time spread for predicted adjudication has increased? It's nearly a month now! I think that probably has something to do with the vast difference in the data. When most people on the top 15 were around 90 days, it was really tight, about a week. Throw in some unusually high numbers, and it spreads out to a month! Wow!!

I looked at the top 15, and I figure that the time predicted for my adjudication is roughly the same as the average of the last 15 approved.

Here are the high time ones:

284: Security Checks

215: Background Checks

145: Time needed to reply to RFE (34 days)

249: RFE AND Background Checks

126: RFE (43 days to reply)

Throw all those out (or assume you'll be faster with your RFE) and the average goes back down to around 90 days!! Of course, maybe you'll be unlucky enough that you or your fiance's name will come up with a name check as being the same name as some dastardly character (speculation of cause!), and you'll get stuck in checks too.

Luckily, my fiance has a really uncommon name so I am hoping nothing will come up!

My fiance tells me everything will be fine, he's talked to his commanders and they tell him everything will be okay, But I am still worried because he has a TS security clearance and I am wondering what kind of red flags might pop up due to that? Me going through more extensive background check? I already had to get interviewed as a reference in order for him to get his clearance, along with his friends and family members. *sigh*

I am really praying it will be around 90 days but at the same time preparing myself to be possibly waiting alot longer!

I am wondering if right now they are going back through and trying to finish up old cases? There have been an awful lot that just got approved recently that have been waiting a long time.

[Nik+Heather 121]

I had a thought about that too - I wonder if whoever does the checks for them sends them a packet with a whole bunch on some sort of regular schedule ...

[Nik+Heather 121]

By the way, Nik is on his way (in flight Atlanta -> Phoenix RIGHT NOW!) to see me. They let him in...with some hassle!! We will work on a post in the visit while K1 is in process thread later tonight.

I'm just thrilled....

But I won't be around too much to discuss Igor's list with you guys until mid March!!