Why K-3s take longer than K-1s?

[Dr. Nick 0]

K1's advantage (as far as USCIS goes) is probably that they get married here in the US. Maybe that explains faster processing times.

[Ilya R. 0]

K1's advantage (as far as USCIS goes) is probably that they get married here in the US. Maybe that explains faster processing times.

I got married in the US, and Im stuck just like you

[rin and john 71]

I know you are probably busy, but i wonder if you chose lets say 11/01/07 as your cutoff date. I would be curious to see the results of that. My guess is you would see a pretty large gap in approval times between the service centers.

________________________________________________________________________________

________________________________________________________

The data already shows a large gap between service centers and visa type. K3's are taking twice as long at Vermont than they are at California. K1's are taking twice as long at California than they are at Vermont. So looking at everyone's data K1, K3, Vermont, California; and trying to use an average doesn't work (the distribution for either K1 or K3 would be bimodal).

Going back to Nov. 2007 would add lots of line items w/o approvals (many because they have not been updated). So yeah, processing time would go up. Assuming a proportional number of VJer's are slackers (whether they filed K1, K3, Vermont, or California) when it comes to updating their timeline, the relative gaps would be similar to the data I already posted. Go look at the "advanced view" for any visa category for "immigration timelines". Set the number of rows to display to 50 or 100. Now scroll through pages until you get to 2005 or 2006. You'll notice that in some instances more than 50% of the pages line items have not received an NOA2 yet. Doubtful. While a few might still be in process due to AR, the vast majority of the timelines have been abandoned by the owner.

I'll try to take a look tomorrow at K-3's from Vermont, since that is probably the data you are most interested in. Just briefly purusing it; it looks like they virtually stopped approving I-129F's for K3's for a few months, but have started up again in June.

sference - Looked at K-3 trends for Vermont. Here is the summary (I did remove RFE's, obvious inactive timelines, etc; I also updated a few of the timelines in my spreadsheet when I could review a member's posts and determine when/if they had passed certain hurdles).

K_3_vermont_summary.htm

As all the K-3 filers at Vermont already know, it sucks to have been in this group as of August 2007 (actually when I was going through California in late 2006, most California filers were "envious" of Vermont filers!). For someone who filed in 2006, the USCIS portion was under 90 days from I-130 sent to NVC receipt. Many had visa in hand within 5 to 6 months of filing. Those that filed in August 2007 thru December 2007 - not so good - about 11 to 13 months estimated for completing the process. But it appears they have improved on the NOA1 issuance since February 2008; and on the 129F approval time the past few months (although I would not put alot of stock in the 80 number for Mar-May as it is only a few data points - I would still be thinking 100 to 120 days from your NOA1 to NOA2). Only time will tell, but someone filing today might realistically expect about 4 to 6 months at Vermont. Add two to three more for the consulate and they might be able to obtain a visa in 6 to 9 months - not great, but a whole lot better than last fall.

John

[Dr. Nick 0]

K1's advantage (as far as USCIS goes) is probably that they get married here in the US. Maybe that explains faster processing times.

I got married in the US, and Im stuck just like you

I guess you were just lucky then . My mistake was not researching this ahead of time. Anyhoo, vacation is not far....it's summer time.

[Ilya R. 0]

K1's advantage (as far as USCIS goes) is probably that they get married here in the US. Maybe that explains faster processing times.

I got married in the US, and Im stuck just like you

I guess you were just lucky then . My mistake was not researching this ahead of time. Anyhoo, vacation is not far....it's summer time.

Mine as well, I made a critical error, I used logic. And we all know USCIS and logic can not be used in the same sentence.

[daboyz 36]

I know you are probably busy, but i wonder if you chose lets say 11/01/07 as your cutoff date. I would be curious to see the results of that. My guess is you would see a pretty large gap in approval times between the service centers.

________________________________________________________________________________

________________________________________________________

The data already shows a large gap between service centers and visa type. K3's are taking twice as long at Vermont than they are at California. K1's are taking twice as long at California than they are at Vermont. So looking at everyone's data K1, K3, Vermont, California; and trying to use an average doesn't work (the distribution for either K1 or K3 would be bimodal).

Going back to Nov. 2007 would add lots of line items w/o approvals (many because they have not been updated). So yeah, processing time would go up. Assuming a proportional number of VJer's are slackers (whether they filed K1, K3, Vermont, or California) when it comes to updating their timeline, the relative gaps would be similar to the data I already posted. Go look at the "advanced view" for any visa category for "immigration timelines". Set the number of rows to display to 50 or 100. Now scroll through pages until you get to 2005 or 2006. You'll notice that in some instances more than 50% of the pages line items have not received an NOA2 yet. Doubtful. While a few might still be in process due to AR, the vast majority of the timelines have been abandoned by the owner.

I'll try to take a look tomorrow at K-3's from Vermont, since that is probably the data you are most interested in. Just briefly purusing it; it looks like they virtually stopped approving I-129F's for K3's for a few months, but have started up again in June.

sference - Looked at K-3 trends for Vermont. Here is the summary (I did remove RFE's, obvious inactive timelines, etc; I also updated a few of the timelines in my spreadsheet when I could review a member's posts and determine when/if they had passed certain hurdles).

K_3_vermont_summary.htm

As all the K-3 filers at Vermont already know, it sucks to have been in this group as of August 2007 (actually when I was going through California in late 2006, most California filers were "envious" of Vermont filers!). For someone who filed in 2006, the USCIS portion was under 90 days from I-130 sent to NVC receipt. Many had visa in hand within 5 to 6 months of filing. Those that filed in August 2007 thru December 2007 - not so good - about 11 to 13 months estimated for completing the process. But it appears they have improved on the NOA1 issuance since February 2008; and on the 129F approval time the past few months (although I would not put alot of stock in the 80 number for Mar-May as it is only a few data points - I would still be thinking 100 to 120 days from your NOA1 to NOA2). Only time will tell, but someone filing today might realistically expect about 4 to 6 months at Vermont. Add two to three more for the consulate and they might be able to obtain a visa in 6 to 9 months - not great, but a whole lot better than last fall.

John

Thanks John,

I was kind of gathering the same thing. I wonder if it's a cyclical thing. Maybe at some point Vermont will be approving I-129Fs for K3s much quicker than CSC. Just a thought. Anyway thanks again for analyzing those data points. Hopefully I'll see NOA2 in the next couple months.

Scott

[Urge To Race 2]

Complaining about which visa should be processed quicker is plain silly... Marriage does not have anything more to do with commitment and love than being engaged does. K1 visa holders only get single entry and 90 days once they enter the US. K3 is a multiple entry visa and valid for 2 yrs. Also being already married to a USC, its almost a certainty that the Alien spouse is an immigrant whereas a fiance(e) still has time to consider and hence an intending immigrant.

Maybe a reason for USCIS to take more time processing K3s...

I dont think its silly, if you have a family with kids, they cant afford to wait for a year, while lovers can.

What if you file a k3 but don't have kids? Or what if you file a k1 but have kids? How many k3s actually /have/ kids or have lived together for any period of time? (We lived together for two years before filing a k1; not exactly "lovers.")

I wonder if the people that work at USCIS read all this and laugh their ####### off?

I'm just trying to get certain people to think "outside the box" in regards to what a family/couple really is!

I think most people who are married know what it is like to be engaged..... everyone who is married has been through it.

[Cassie 8]

I know you are probably busy, but i wonder if you chose lets say 11/01/07 as your cutoff date. I would be curious to see the results of that. My guess is you would see a pretty large gap in approval times between the service centers.

________________________________________________________________________________

________________________________________________________

The data already shows a large gap between service centers and visa type. K3's are taking twice as long at Vermont than they are at California. K1's are taking twice as long at California than they are at Vermont. So looking at everyone's data K1, K3, Vermont, California; and trying to use an average doesn't work (the distribution for either K1 or K3 would be bimodal).

Going back to Nov. 2007 would add lots of line items w/o approvals (many because they have not been updated). So yeah, processing time would go up. Assuming a proportional number of VJer's are slackers (whether they filed K1, K3, Vermont, or California) when it comes to updating their timeline, the relative gaps would be similar to the data I already posted. Go look at the "advanced view" for any visa category for "immigration timelines". Set the number of rows to display to 50 or 100. Now scroll through pages until you get to 2005 or 2006. You'll notice that in some instances more than 50% of the pages line items have not received an NOA2 yet. Doubtful. While a few might still be in process due to AR, the vast majority of the timelines have been abandoned by the owner.

I'll try to take a look tomorrow at K-3's from Vermont, since that is probably the data you are most interested in. Just briefly purusing it; it looks like they virtually stopped approving I-129F's for K3's for a few months, but have started up again in June.

sference - Looked at K-3 trends for Vermont. Here is the summary (I did remove RFE's, obvious inactive timelines, etc; I also updated a few of the timelines in my spreadsheet when I could review a member's posts and determine when/if they had passed certain hurdles).

K_3_vermont_summary.htm

As all the K-3 filers at Vermont already know, it sucks to have been in this group as of August 2007 (actually when I was going through California in late 2006, most California filers were "envious" of Vermont filers!). For someone who filed in 2006, the USCIS portion was under 90 days from I-130 sent to NVC receipt. Many had visa in hand within 5 to 6 months of filing. Those that filed in August 2007 thru December 2007 - not so good - about 11 to 13 months estimated for completing the process. But it appears they have improved on the NOA1 issuance since February 2008; and on the 129F approval time the past few months (although I would not put alot of stock in the 80 number for Mar-May as it is only a few data points - I would still be thinking 100 to 120 days from your NOA1 to NOA2). Only time will tell, but someone filing today might realistically expect about 4 to 6 months at Vermont. Add two to three more for the consulate and they might be able to obtain a visa in 6 to 9 months - not great, but a whole lot better than last fall.

John

Thanks John,

I was kind of gathering the same thing. I wonder if it's a cyclical thing. Maybe at some point Vermont will be approving I-129Fs for K3s much quicker than CSC. Just a thought. Anyway thanks again for analyzing those data points. Hopefully I'll see NOA2 in the next couple months.

Scott

It usually happens. 6 months from now it'll be "VSC is SOOOO much faster!!!!!"

[HannahP 119]

Complaining about which visa should be processed quicker is plain silly... Marriage does not have anything more to do with commitment and love than being engaged does. K1 visa holders only get single entry and 90 days once they enter the US. K3 is a multiple entry visa and valid for 2 yrs. Also being already married to a USC, its almost a certainty that the Alien spouse is an immigrant whereas a fiance(e) still has time to consider and hence an intending immigrant.

Maybe a reason for USCIS to take more time processing K3s...

I dont think its silly, if you have a family with kids, they cant afford to wait for a year, while lovers can.

What if you file a k3 but don't have kids? Or what if you file a k1 but have kids? How many k3s actually /have/ kids or have lived together for any period of time? (We lived together for two years before filing a k1; not exactly "lovers.")

I wonder if the people that work at USCIS read all this and laugh their ####### off?

I'm just trying to get certain people to think "outside the box" in regards to what a family/couple really is!

I think most people who are married know what it is like to be engaged..... everyone who is married has been through it.

Good god, I give up.

Your idea of marriage does not equal "marriage."

/I/ knew what marriage was like long before you did because I actually lived with my now-husband for two years. We weren't married. But we were still committed. Marriage is a piece of paper. Choosing to commit yourselves is another thing completely.

[Karaoke 0]

John,

I am afraid you are wide off the mark with your calculations... I think MOST people who filed YTD at VSC still did not get a NOA2...

Not sure how you can come up with those average times..

I know you are probably busy, but i wonder if you chose lets say 11/01/07 as your cutoff date. I would be curious to see the results of that. My guess is you would see a pretty large gap in approval times between the service centers.

________________________________________________________________________________

________________________________________________________

The data already shows a large gap between service centers and visa type. K3's are taking twice as long at Vermont than they are at California. K1's are taking twice as long at California than they are at Vermont. So looking at everyone's data K1, K3, Vermont, California; and trying to use an average doesn't work (the distribution for either K1 or K3 would be bimodal).

Going back to Nov. 2007 would add lots of line items w/o approvals (many because they have not been updated). So yeah, processing time would go up. Assuming a proportional number of VJer's are slackers (whether they filed K1, K3, Vermont, or California) when it comes to updating their timeline, the relative gaps would be similar to the data I already posted. Go look at the "advanced view" for any visa category for "immigration timelines". Set the number of rows to display to 50 or 100. Now scroll through pages until you get to 2005 or 2006. You'll notice that in some instances more than 50% of the pages line items have not received an NOA2 yet. Doubtful. While a few might still be in process due to AR, the vast majority of the timelines have been abandoned by the owner.

I'll try to take a look tomorrow at K-3's from Vermont, since that is probably the data you are most interested in. Just briefly purusing it; it looks like they virtually stopped approving I-129F's for K3's for a few months, but have started up again in June.

sference - Looked at K-3 trends for Vermont. Here is the summary (I did remove RFE's, obvious inactive timelines, etc; I also updated a few of the timelines in my spreadsheet when I could review a member's posts and determine when/if they had passed certain hurdles).

K_3_vermont_summary.htm

As all the K-3 filers at Vermont already know, it sucks to have been in this group as of August 2007 (actually when I was going through California in late 2006, most California filers were "envious" of Vermont filers!). For someone who filed in 2006, the USCIS portion was under 90 days from I-130 sent to NVC receipt. Many had visa in hand within 5 to 6 months of filing. Those that filed in August 2007 thru December 2007 - not so good - about 11 to 13 months estimated for completing the process. But it appears they have improved on the NOA1 issuance since February 2008; and on the 129F approval time the past few months (although I would not put alot of stock in the 80 number for Mar-May as it is only a few data points - I would still be thinking 100 to 120 days from your NOA1 to NOA2). Only time will tell, but someone filing today might realistically expect about 4 to 6 months at Vermont. Add two to three more for the consulate and they might be able to obtain a visa in 6 to 9 months - not great, but a whole lot better than last fall.

John

[rebeccajo 14]

John,

I am afraid you are wide off the mark with your calculations... I think MOST people who filed YTD at VSC still did not get a NOA2...

Not sure how you can come up with those average times..

Math?

[pushbrk 12,824]

John,

I am afraid you are wide off the mark with your calculations... I think MOST people who filed YTD at VSC still did not get a NOA2...

Not sure how you can come up with those average times..

Math?

In my business dealings, I regularly ask independant business owners the size in dollars of their average sale. Amost invariably, their answer will be what they think is the most common sale size, which may or may not be anything near their average. If you sold a million bucks and you had 2000 sales, your average was $500 but what they are thinking is most of their sales are between two and three hundred dollars and they simply forget about the ten percent of their sales that are a couple thousand bucks or more.

He explained that he threw out some "outliers" (In my example the half dozen $20,000 sales) and then calculated an average of the remaining data, presumably dividing the total number of days between points remaining buy the number of cases remaining.

Perhaps Charisma1 is using a gut feeling from reading reports here rather than examining the hard data and doing a calculation based on it.

Edited June 29, 2008 by pushbrk

[rebeccajo 14]

John,

I am afraid you are wide off the mark with your calculations... I think MOST people who filed YTD at VSC still did not get a NOA2...

Not sure how you can come up with those average times..

Math?

In my business dealings, I regularly ask independant business owners the size in dollars of their average sale. Amost invariably, their answer will be what they think is the most common sale size, which may or may not be anything near their average. If you sold a million bucks and you had 2000 sales, your average was $500 but what they are thinking is most of their sales are between two and three hundred dollars and they simply forget about the ten percent of their sales that are a couple thousand bucks or more.

He explained that he threw out some "outliers" (In my example the half dozen $20,000 sales) and then calculated an average of the remaining data, presumably dividing the total number of days between points remaining buy the number of cases remaining.

Perhaps Charisma1 is using a gut feeling from reading reports here rather than examining the hard data and doing a calculation based on it.

Possibly.

My gut feeling is that charisma1 would prefer to think that 'right now' is the worst time ever for getting her visa type. Or that her visa type is the hardest one to get. Or whatever. It's a typical mindset of those who like to believe they are the only ones ever inconvenienced by the Service.

[pushbrk 12,824]

John,

I am afraid you are wide off the mark with your calculations... I think MOST people who filed YTD at VSC still did not get a NOA2...

Not sure how you can come up with those average times..

Math?

In my business dealings, I regularly ask independant business owners the size in dollars of their average sale. Amost invariably, their answer will be what they think is the most common sale size, which may or may not be anything near their average. If you sold a million bucks and you had 2000 sales, your average was $500 but what they are thinking is most of their sales are between two and three hundred dollars and they simply forget about the ten percent of their sales that are a couple thousand bucks or more.

He explained that he threw out some "outliers" (In my example the half dozen $20,000 sales) and then calculated an average of the remaining data, presumably dividing the total number of days between points remaining buy the number of cases remaining.

Perhaps Charisma1 is using a gut feeling from reading reports here rather than examining the hard data and doing a calculation based on it.

Possibly.

My gut feeling is that charisma1 would prefer to think that 'right now' is the worst time ever for getting her visa type. Or that her visa type is the hardest one to get. Or whatever. It's a typical mindset of those who like to believe they are the only ones ever inconvenienced by the Service.

Yes, one breeds the other in no particular order.

[rin and john 71]

The numbers are what they are. You are correct in that alot of people have not received NOA2's. Typical reporting on VJ is about 75 to 80% for K-3ers (go back to timelines from 2005 and 2006 and roughly 80% have "reported" getting a NOA2 - for the sake of statistical analysis they would have to be tossed out as either outliers or lack of data). Reporting for Q1, 2008 is less than 20% receiving NOA2s, suggesting as you say a large number have truly not received them. However, during this period, a significant number have opted to change from K-3 to CR-1/IR-1. Their timeline has been updated with I-130 NOA2, but not I-129F. Some are still waiting for the I-129F, but some have moved on. That is where the statistics would fail as I cannot determine (without PMing everyone) who has chosen which option. So the only conclusion that can be drawn is that last August, Vermont's performance tanked and it has improved in recent months (as witnessed by improved NOA1 issuance).

John

John,

I am afraid you are wide off the mark with your calculations... I think MOST people who filed YTD at VSC still did not get a NOA2...

Not sure how you can come up with those average times..

I know you are probably busy, but i wonder if you chose lets say 11/01/07 as your cutoff date. I would be curious to see the results of that. My guess is you would see a pretty large gap in approval times between the service centers.

________________________________________________________________________________

________________________________________________________

The data already shows a large gap between service centers and visa type. K3's are taking twice as long at Vermont than they are at California. K1's are taking twice as long at California than they are at Vermont. So looking at everyone's data K1, K3, Vermont, California; and trying to use an average doesn't work (the distribution for either K1 or K3 would be bimodal).

Going back to Nov. 2007 would add lots of line items w/o approvals (many because they have not been updated). So yeah, processing time would go up. Assuming a proportional number of VJer's are slackers (whether they filed K1, K3, Vermont, or California) when it comes to updating their timeline, the relative gaps would be similar to the data I already posted. Go look at the "advanced view" for any visa category for "immigration timelines". Set the number of rows to display to 50 or 100. Now scroll through pages until you get to 2005 or 2006. You'll notice that in some instances more than 50% of the pages line items have not received an NOA2 yet. Doubtful. While a few might still be in process due to AR, the vast majority of the timelines have been abandoned by the owner.

I'll try to take a look tomorrow at K-3's from Vermont, since that is probably the data you are most interested in. Just briefly purusing it; it looks like they virtually stopped approving I-129F's for K3's for a few months, but have started up again in June.

sference - Looked at K-3 trends for Vermont. Here is the summary (I did remove RFE's, obvious inactive timelines, etc; I also updated a few of the timelines in my spreadsheet when I could review a member's posts and determine when/if they had passed certain hurdles).

K_3_vermont_summary.htm

As all the K-3 filers at Vermont already know, it sucks to have been in this group as of August 2007 (actually when I was going through California in late 2006, most California filers were "envious" of Vermont filers!). For someone who filed in 2006, the USCIS portion was under 90 days from I-130 sent to NVC receipt. Many had visa in hand within 5 to 6 months of filing. Those that filed in August 2007 thru December 2007 - not so good - about 11 to 13 months estimated for completing the process. But it appears they have improved on the NOA1 issuance since February 2008; and on the 129F approval time the past few months (although I would not put alot of stock in the 80 number for Mar-May as it is only a few data points - I would still be thinking 100 to 120 days from your NOA1 to NOA2). Only time will tell, but someone filing today might realistically expect about 4 to 6 months at Vermont. Add two to three more for the consulate and they might be able to obtain a visa in 6 to 9 months - not great, but a whole lot better than last fall.

John