July and Aug. NOA2's by date of NOA1

[Teachers 12]

Vermont NOA1 month

earlier Feb. March Apr. May June July Aug. Total

July NOA2 0 0 1 8 22 14 45

Aug. NOA2 1 0 7 7 4 13 12 8 52

Open, active 3 5 2 8 7 12 37

California NOA1 month

earlier Feb. March Apr. May June July Aug.

July NOA2 4 0 19 20 21 13 0 0 77

Aug. NOA2 2 0 32 34 35 6 1 1 111

Open, active 1 34 31 31 51 68 58 274

"Active is defined as having updated one's timeline in July, August (or September).

Any tips on how to get tables or graphs to look decent? It looked fine when I wrote it, but this is a mess. I tried to post a chart, but cut & paste wouldn't work.

Tom

[Teachers 12]

I tried to do the charts as an attachment, but failed. Any tips?

Tom

Edited September 3, 2006 by TomYu

[Teachers 12]

Let me put it a different way:

CSC

March NOA1's

July approval 19

Aug. 32

Waiting 34

April NOA1's

July approval 20

Aug. 34

Waiting 31

May NOA1's

July approval 21

Aug. 35

Waiting 31

June NOA1's

July approval 13

Aug. 6

waiting 51

Waiting includes those who have updated their timelines since July 1.

Total CSC approvals

July 77 (mostly second half of the month)

Aug. 111

IF they go in order (big IF), and IF they keep the same approval rate as Aug. (plausible?), then by the end of September we should see March, April and May done, and a decent start on June.

Total VSC approvals

July 45

Aug. 52

VSC waiting

March 3

Apr. 5

May 2

June 8

July 7

Aug. 12

Total 37

I have graphs and more detail. If anyone wants them, just send me an email or tell me how to post them here.

Tom

[Ladylethal 12]

where's that info from?

[bowhunter 0]

Hmmmm . . . TomyU, our NOA1 is March 30th and is currently parked at Cal. Are you saying in July the CSC granted NOA2s to 19 March dated apps, and in Aug managed another 32, leaving only 31 March dated apps to complete? Hence our app is one of only 31 left from March? Great if true, but that seems a little light for the CSC. Where did this data come from? Just like to check the stats before I start jumping up and down.

[Teachers 12]

Hmmmm . . . TomyU, our NOA1 is March 30th and is currently parked at Cal. Are you saying in July the CSC granted NOA2s to 19 March dated apps, and in Aug managed another 32, leaving only 31 March dated apps to complete? Hence our app is one of only 31 left from March? Great if true, but that seems a little light for the CSC. Where did this data come from? Just like to check the stats before I start jumping up and down.

I downloaded all the VJ data into Excel, and did some sorts. I filtered out those who have not updated since June 30. Thus I found that CSC approved 19 March's in July and 32 in August. As of 8/31 there were 34 active March's that were not approved. On 9/1 there were 4 approved, leaving 30 active March waiting approval in CSC. In addition, CSC approved 111 in August. Thus they should easily clear most of the remaining March (30), April (31) and May (31-1 on 9/1) if they keep up the same pace.

If they kept up exactly the same pace and went exactly in order, then in Sept. they would clear:

March 34

April 31

May 31

June 15.

Then in October they would clear:

June 36 (finishing June)

July 68 (finishing July)

Aug. 7.

Tom

Hmmmm . . . TomyU, our NOA1 is March 30th and is currently parked at Cal. Are you saying in July the CSC granted NOA2s to 19 March dated apps, and in Aug managed another 32, leaving only 31 March dated apps to complete? Hence our app is one of only 31 left from March? Great if true, but that seems a little light for the CSC. Where did this data come from? Just like to check the stats before I start jumping up and down.

I got all the data from VJ. I went to Immigration Timelines, K1 detailed data, downloaded it into Excel, and did some sorts and counts. Please let me know if you want more information. I have my Excel summary sheet with charts, and the detailed Excel raw data. I'll gladly post it if someone tells me how, or distribute it by email if someone wants.

Tom

[bowhunter 0]

K . . . that explains it. The numbers don't reflect actual numbers at the CSC, only the VJ numbers. I thought being one of only 31 was a bit optimistic. But, still, this is valid if the proportionality holds. Thanks Tom for compiling this.

[Teachers 12]

K . . . that explains it. The numbers don't reflect actual numbers at the CSC, only the VJ numbers. I thought being one of only 31 was a bit optimistic. But, still, this is valid if the proportionality holds. Thanks Tom for compiling this.

You are very welcome. I will be updating this weekly. Of course, some of the approvals may be "dormant" folks who have not updated their timelines, so things may not be quite as fast as the statistics indicate.

I think I read in another thread that 32,000 K1's entered the US in 2005. We have about 1000 VJ listed with 2006 apps, so will probably be about 1500 by the end of the year. That's only a 5% sample. But when you think about national opinion polls, they only poll 1000 people to represent the entire voting population. Thus we may be a reasonable sample. In some ways, I suspect we're a biased sample. We are probably the ones who are more computer savy, more detail oriented, and thus may be more careful in creating our files, and more rapid in returning RFE's. Thus we as a group may be somewhat faster than the other 90% - a very scary thought.

IF things proceed at the same pace, then we will be down to "only" an 80 day turn-around on CSC NOA2's by the end of October.

Tom

K . . . that explains it. The numbers don't reflect actual numbers at the CSC, only the VJ numbers. I thought being one of only 31 was a bit optimistic. But, still, this is valid if the proportionality holds. Thanks Tom for compiling this.

You are very welcome. I will be updating this weekly. Of course, some of the approvals may be "dormant" folks who have not updated their timelines, so things may not be quite as fast as the statistics indicate.

I think I read in another thread that 32,000 K1's entered the US in 2005. We have about 1000 VJ listed with 2006 apps, so will probably be about 1500 by the end of the year. That's only a 5% sample. But when you think about national opinion polls, they only poll 1000 people to represent the entire voting population. Thus we may be a reasonable sample. In some ways, I suspect we're a biased sample. We are probably the ones who are more computer savy, more detail oriented, and thus may be more careful in creating our files, and more rapid in returning RFE's. Thus we as a group may be somewhat faster than the other 90% - a very scary thought.

IF things proceed at the same pace, then we will be down to "only" an 80 day turn-around on CSC NOA2's by the end of October.

Tom

Edited September 4, 2006 by TomYu

[Teachers 12]

This is an attempt to post the Excel data, using IE instead of my normal Firefox.

[Nagishkaw 510]

Wow! thanks Tom ! This is some really good work, and hopefull news for us March people.

[one...two...tree 2,762]

Hmmmm . . . TomyU, our NOA1 is March 30th and is currently parked at Cal. Are you saying in July the CSC granted NOA2s to 19 March dated apps, and in Aug managed another 32, leaving only 31 March dated apps to complete? Hence our app is one of only 31 left from March? Great if true, but that seems a little light for the CSC. Where did this data come from? Just like to check the stats before I start jumping up and down.

I downloaded all the VJ data into Excel, and did some sorts. I filtered out those who have not updated since June 30. Thus I found that CSC approved 19 March's in July and 32 in August. As of 8/31 there were 34 active March's that were not approved. On 9/1 there were 4 approved, leaving 30 active March waiting approval in CSC. In addition, CSC approved 111 in August. Thus they should easily clear most of the remaining March (30), April (31) and May (31-1 on 9/1) if they keep up the same pace.

If they kept up exactly the same pace and went exactly in order, then in Sept. they would clear:

March 34

April 31

May 31

June 15.

Then in October they would clear:

June 36 (finishing June)

July 68 (finishing July)

Aug. 7.

Thanks Tom for doing this! It helps a lot! I'm one of the June filers who got pidgeon holed and never received an IMBRA RFE. So statistically speaking, I should get my NOA2 by the end of October, barring any problems. At least I can try to pace myself for that. Before, I was hoping and praying for an NOA2 by the end of August - but that came and went already.

Edited September 4, 2006 by Steven_and_Jinky

[Teachers 12]

Sept_1_data.doc

This is another attempt/test. Hope it works this time.

Tom

[Nagishkaw 510]

It worked for me . Thanks.

[wodengdaini 0]

Sept_1_data.doc

This is another attempt/test. Hope it works this time.

Tom

Thank you Tom for the time and effort you have given to us. Have a good and safe weekend.

[bowhunter 0]

Looks good. Nothing like a picture to drive the point home. Thanks again!